Receding Horizon Gradient Descent (RHGD) google
This paper studies an online optimization problem with switching costs and a finite prediction window. We propose two computationally efficient algorithms: Receding Horizon Gradient Descent (RHGD), and Receding Horizon Accelerated Gradient (RHAG). Both algorithms only require a finite number of gradient evaluations at each time. We show that both the dynamic regret and the competitive ratio of the proposed algorithms decay exponentially fast with the length of the prediction window, and the decay rate of RHAG is larger than RHGD. Moreover, we provide a fundamental lower bound on the dynamic regret for general online algorithms with a finite prediction window. The lower bound matches the dynamic regret of our RHAG, meaning that the performance can not improve significantly even with more computation. Lastly, we present simulation results to test our algorithms numerically. …

Competing Prediction Algorithm google
Prediction is a well-studied machine learning task, and prediction algorithms are core ingredients in online products and services. Despite their centrality in the competition between online companies who offer prediction-based products, the strategic use of prediction algorithms remains unexplored. The goal of this paper is to examine strategic use of prediction algorithms. We introduce a novel game-theoretic setting that is based on the PAC learning framework, where each player (aka a prediction algorithm at competition) seeks to maximize the sum of points for which it produces an accurate prediction and the others do not. We show that algorithms aiming at generalization may wittingly miss-predict some points to perform better than others on expectation. We analyze the empirical game, i.e. the game induced on a given sample, prove that it always possesses a pure Nash equilibrium, and show that every better-response learning process converges. Moreover, our learning-theoretic analysis suggests that players can, with high probability, learn an approximate pure Nash equilibrium for the whole population using a small number of samples. …

Siamese Survival Prognosis Network (SSPN) google
Survival analysis in the presence of multiple possible adverse events, i.e., competing risks, is a pervasive problem in many industries (healthcare, finance, etc.). Since only one event is typically observed, the incidence of an event of interest is often obscured by other related competing events. This nonidentifiability, or inability to estimate true cause-specific survival curves from empirical data, further complicates competing risk survival analysis. We introduce Siamese Survival Prognosis Network (SSPN), a novel deep learning architecture for estimating personalized risk scores in the presence of competing risks. SSPN circumvents the nonidentifiability problem by avoiding the estimation of cause-specific survival curves and instead determines pairwise concordant time-dependent risks, where longer event times are assigned lower risks. Furthermore, SSPN is able to directly optimize an approximation to the C-discrimination index, rather than relying on well-known metrics which are unable to capture the unique requirements of survival analysis with competing risks. …

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